ATACMS strikes and destroyed Russian fighter jets
This week of war in numbers
In this article, I will go over the major incidents and developments that have happened in the last week (Sunday, 21st-28th) of the war in Ukraine. I will be publishing these weekly reports every Sunday, so feel free to follow so as not to miss out on any news. You can find the previous weekly summary here.
Let us once again start with a list of visually confirmed losses published by Oryx and Jakub Janovsky.
From 20–23.07.2024, Russia has been visually confirmed to lose 2.41x more equipment than Ukraine.
From 23–26.07.2024, Russia has been visually confirmed to lose 3.86x more equipment than Ukraine.
All in all, this week, Russia has lost 95 vehicles compared to Ukraine’s 31, bringing the final ratio of losses to 3.06 in Ukraine’s favour. This represents a slight drop in the number of losses suffered by both sides compared to the previous week. The final ratio of losses suffered by Russia compared to Ukraine has increased from 2.74 to 3.06. In this week's rundown we can also notice a significant uptick in the amount of lost T-62M tanks. These have been spotted on train carts heading towards Ukraine in the two previous weeks. However old they may be, they have been put promptly to the front line.
The count of visually documented Russian losses has also reached 17 000, with the total count of visually documented Russian T-72 losses exceeding 1500 !
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
Geoconfirmed losses
This segment concerns geolocated losses on the frontline and aids the viewer in finding the areas of highest combat concentration. Data was gathered from https://geoconfirmed.org/ukraine. Every red bubble corresponds with a lost Russian vehicle or infantry.
Long-range strikes into Russia
This week has been filled with long-range strikes into Russia, hitting airfields, fuel depots, radar installations and a ship. Below I will go over these events, highlighting confirmed losses while also mentioning the unconfirmed ones.
Morozovsk air base and Tuapse oil refinery
On the night of 22nd of July a large drone attack took place inside Russia. According to the Russian media, over 75 drones broke through to the Russian airspace and targeted Morozovsk air base in the Rostov region and Tuapse oil refinery in the Krasnodar region. The oil refinery was hit directly by a drone but seemed to suffer little to no damage, already being operational the following day. Morozovsk Air Base was hit by at least 8 drones but also suffered little damage. A small oil depot was destroyed inside the base, but the rest of the drones have only hit empty fields, presumably due to the effects of electronic warfare. Both strikes have utilized a hole in the air defence network over Mariupol, which was created by Ukrainian forces the previous week. More information about this strike and satellite imagery of the aftermath can be found here.
Missile strike on the Russian ferry Slavyanin
Earlier this week, Ukraine also performed a strike on a Russian ferry operating in the Kerch Strait, damaging it heavily. It was the last of the originally 3 ferries operating here, with the previous 2 being heavily damaged in an ATACMS strike at the end of May this year. This strike presumably used a modified Neptune missile with extended range in ground-attack mode. These ferries were being used to transfer large quantities of fuel and ammunition over the Kerch Strait, as the Kerch bridge still cannot service heavy trains after being previously damaged.
ATACMS strike on Saky/Novofedorivka air base, Crimea
On the night of 25–26 July 2024, a strike was carried out on the Saky air base, the location of the 43rd Independent Naval Assault Aviation Regiment. The strike was reportedly carried out using 8 ATACMS ballistic missiles, two of which were shot down, and another fell in a field north of the airfield. As a result of the strike one Su-30 fighter jet was confirmed to be destroyed, with another one suffering damage. It is currently unknown if the damaged fighter can be repaired. A Nebo-M radar station was also destroyed, with the possibility of an ammunition depot exploding as well. As satellite imagery comes out I will update this story.
Ukrainian sabotage groups burning helicopters deep inside Russian territory
On July 24, 2024, a Mi-8 helicopter was targeted at the Kryazh airfield in Samara, Russia, and on July 21, 2024, in Tomilino, near Moscow, an Mi-28 attack helicopter and a Ka-226 multipurpose helicopter were hit. These two behind-the-lines attacks are also supplemented by a Russian Su-34 jet crashing near Volgograd due to mechanical failure.
Strikes on Saturday, July 27th
And finally, there have been two strikes inside Russia today, one so far confirmed and one not.
Over night, drones have attacked the Kursk region, igniting oil depots. Two fires were reported, one in the Medvensky district and another in Kursk. This oil depot was already targeted in February.
The second, by far more interesting strike, is yet to be confirmed. Last night, Ukraine might have struck Russian territory within the Arctic Circle for the first time since the start of the war. Ukrainian drones supposedly struck a Tu-22M3 long-range strategic bomber at the Olenya air base. These bombers are used to launch cruise missiles inside Ukraine. The air base is only 150 km away from the border with Norway and Finland and over 1800 km from the Ukrainian border.
Update 29th of July: The Russian Telegram channel Fighterbomber has confirmed the damage to the Tu-22M3, describing it as survivable (repairable). Their translated post can be found here.
Wagner convoy destroyed in Mali, Africa
In a recent turn of events diverging from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Wagner Group forces have encountered a significant setback in Tinzaouaten, Mali. Reports indicate that a Wagner convoy, alongside Malian military personnel, attempted an assault on a rebel-held settlement of Tinzaouaten. However, they were ambushed en route, leading to substantial casualties and the capture of their vehicles, including Chinese-made MRAPs. The convoy fell into a trap, with IEDs (improvised explosive device) disabling the front and back vehicles, followed by a vehicle-borne IED attack into the middle of the convoy. Additionally, a Russian Mi-24 helicopter rescuing wounded personnel was downed during the confrontation.
The severity of the encounter is underscored by the loss of key Wagner personnel, including Commander Anton Yelizarov, known for his leading role in the Soledar offensive. An administrator of the Wagner Telegram channel Greyzone was also lost in the encounter. Russian sources claim to have suffered more than 80 dead, with around 15 more captured. This single loss would represent approximately 10–20% of all Wagner forces inside Mali.
The next week's rundown can be found here.
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