Ukrainian drones strike Morozovsk air base and Tuapse oil refinery
Assessment of the aftermath and targets hit
On the night of 22nd of July, a large one-way drone attack took place inside Russia. According to the Russian media, a total of 75 drones attacked Russian regions in the early morning hours. 47 of them were supposed to be intercepted over the Rostov region, 1 drone over Belgorod, Voronezh, and Smolensk regions each, 8 more drones over the Krasnodar region, and finally, 17 over the Black Sea. While these numbers are certainly exaggerated, a large drone attack has definitely taken place, with drones hitting and damaging the Tuapse oil refinery in the Krasnodar region and Morozovsk air base in the Rostov region of Russia. Let us take a look at both, starting with the Tuapse oil refinery.
Tuapse oil refinery, Russia’s biggest refinery on the Black Sea, has a processing capacity of 240 000 barrels of oil per day and has been a target of several Ukrainian drone attacks since the start of the full-scale war. The last drone attack caused a fire which has spread to an area of 50 square meters. It was extinguished rather quickly, by 31 pieces of firefighting equipment and 91 firefighters. The day following the attack, Alexander Novak, Russian Deputy Prime Minister, said that the oil refinery is still operating. Not many details are known, as it is hard to determine the damage caused by the drone. Hits to certain areas of the refinery, such as the isomerisation unit or the catalytic cracking unit, would cause major damage, while hits to most other areas would be inconsequential. If more facts regarding this attack become known, I will update the story. Let us move on to the attack on Morozovsk air base.
Morozovsk air base is one of the largest Russian air bases close to Ukraine, seeing daily action in the conflict. The base is home to the 559th Bomber Aviation Regiment, which has three squadrons of Sukhoi Su-34s. The air base has been the target of Ukrainian drone attacks several times already. One Su-34 was lightly damaged in a drone attack in the December of last year, with two more attacks happening in 2024. The first one happened on April 5th, where Ukrainian officials claimed that at least 6 aircraft were destroyed, and 8 heavily damaged. However, independent sources (ISW) have found no evidence of damaged aircraft, so these numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt. Another attack happened on the night of June 13th, where, again, Ukrainian officials claimed 2 Su-34s damaged.
What is also interesting about this attack, is the apparent trajectory the Ukrainian drones have taken. According to the Russian Telegram channel Rybar, the drones targeting both Tuapse and Morozovsk have flown in the vicinity of Mariupol. This would correspond with my previous assessment regarding the attack on Millerovo air base. Last week, an S-300/S-400 battery has been hit near Mariupol by cluster ATACMS, creating a hole in the Russian air-defence bubble. This attack has allowed Ukrainian drones to target Millerovo air base. However, it is interesting to note that this hole has not been plugged yet, indicating slow response time from the Russian army.
UPDATE: Aftermath and satellite imagery — 25th of July
The first, low-quality satellite imagery has been published on the 22nd of July. These low-quality pictures have not given us much information regarding the targets hit.
However, new, high-quality imagery was published on July 25th. Let us take a look.
Unfortunately, the base seems to have suffered minimal damage. No fighter jets have been hit and only one small fuel depot was destroyed. This fuel depot was the source of the black smoke photographed after the attack. There is a near-zero chance of shrapnel damaging the aircraft.
At least 8 drones were able to strike the air base, leaving scorch marks, unfortunately, none of them have caused any serious damage, with neither the aircraft nor the S-300 battery being hit. The drones seem to have landed on average around 100 meters from their targets, suggesting electronic warfare interference. The only target destroyed was a small fuel/lubricant depot that probably was not the intended target of the drone.
Thank you for reading the whole story and the update.
